South Africa’s automotive industry surpasses pre-pandemic vehicle sales levels in 2025
South Africa’s new vehicle market delivered its strongest performance in more than a decade in 2025, decisively surpassing pre-pandemic levels and marking a milestone recovery for the automotive sector.
According to naamsa, the Automotive Business Council, total new vehicle sales climbed to 596,818 units for the year, representing a robust 15.7% increase over 2024 and exceeding 2019 volumes for the first time.
“This upward swing, closely tied to broader economic improvements,” was underpinned by a confluence of supportive factors, including cumulative interest rate cuts of 150 basis points since September 2024, record-low vehicle inflation, and a surge in competitively priced vehicle imports. naamsa highlighted that vehicle inflation fell to “a record low of 1.5% – the lowest since tracking began in 2008,” significantly improving affordability for consumers.
Momentum accelerated into the final month of the year, with December 2025 delivering one of the strongest monthly performances. Aggregate industry sales reached 48,983 units, up sharply from 41,101 units in December 2024.
The year-end surge coincided with improved household sentiment, as “consumer confidence showed a notable improvement in the fourth quarter and marked the highest reading of the year.” Passenger car sales rose by 20.3% year-on-year in December, while light commercial vehicles recorded an even stronger increase of 23.7%.
However, the commercial segment was mixed. Medium commercial vehicle sales declined by 7.0% year-on-year, while heavy trucks and buses fell by 13.2%, reflecting ongoing pressure in freight-related investment.
Dealer channels remained dominant, with 90.8% of December sales attributed to dealers, while rental companies accounted for 6.3%, government for 1.9%, and corporate fleets for 1.0%.
naamsa described 2025 as “a year of recovery and technological shifts,” noting that double-digit sales growth exceeded expectations despite earlier economic constraints. Improved liquidity conditions revived vehicle financing, while consumers who delayed purchases during 2021–2024 returned to the market en masse to replace ageing vehicles.
The transition toward New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) also gathered pace, with naamsa confirming that “year-to-date sales by November 2025 already exceeded the full-year 2024 performance.” At the same time, an influx of lower-cost imports, particularly from China and India, intensified competition and reshaped the market landscape.
“The significant influx of affordable vehicle imports in 2025… dramatically enhanced new car sales, challenging domestic OEMs but satisfying consumer demand,” the industry body noted.
Passenger cars led the recovery, posting a 20.1% increase to 422,292 units in 2025, while light commercial vehicles grew by 7.8%. Total industry volumes reached their highest level since 2014.
Despite domestic demand absorbing a larger share of production, vehicle exports also reached a historic milestone. Export volumes climbed to 408,224 units in 2025, up 4.4% from the previous year and “breaching the 400,000-unit mark for the first time ever.”
While car exports declined by 8.0%, this was offset by strong gains in light commercial vehicles and trucks and buses, which grew by 33.3% and 68.4% respectively.
naamsa cautioned that the export outlook remains complex, pointing to geopolitical risks and evolving trade dynamics. The organisation noted that a softening of the EU’s 2035 emissions target to a 90% CO₂ reduction “provides a marginal reprieve for OEMs navigating the NEV transition race,” but stressed that this should not lead to complacency.
“This regulatory reprieve should not be misconstrued as an opportunity for policy inertia,” naamsa warned, emphasising that the shift to clean mobility remains “an existential priority” for South Africa’s export competitiveness.
Looking ahead, naamsa expects the positive momentum to continue into 2026. With inflation forecast to average 3.3% and real GDP growth projected at between 1.4% and 1.6%, new vehicle sales are anticipated to grow by a further 9% to 11% year-on-year.
The industry also expects global developments to shape local outcomes, particularly as weakening domestic demand in China could drive further exports of affordable vehicles into markets such as South Africa.
Against this backdrop of recovery and transformation, naamsa announced the appointment of a new Board, led by BMW Group South Africa CEO Peter van Binsbergen as President. The organisation described his appointment as arriving “at a pivotal moment as the sector manages the NEV transition, intensifying geopolitical risks, and evolving global value chains.”
The industry paid tribute to outgoing President Billy Tom, acknowledging his leadership through “post-pandemic recovery, supply-chain constraints, and the dawn of the Government of National Unity.”