The ANC will not reclaim lost ground in the 2026 local government elections because it has failed to honour the social contract of service delivery to the public, and it has run out of time to fix what would have changed the status quo, experts say.

In 2024, during the national elections, the ANC, which had governed the country solo since 1994, suffered a humiliating defeat at the polls, forcing it to enter into a coalition with other political parties, including the opposition.

Now, in the 2026 local government elections, it faces another test. A political analyst and a governance expert say the ANC will not bounce back because eligible voters are mostly affected by service delivery failures and are fed up.

Professor Ntsikelelo Breakfast, a political analyst from Nelson Mandela University, said the majority of eligible voters are young people who have been kept on the sidelines of the economy, and are unemployed and struggling to access basic services.

“The ANC and the public need to appreciate that the majority of eligible voters at the moment are young people, throughout the length and the breadth of the African continent.

“Young people are kept at bay in the country’s economic activity. They are on the back foot, bearing the brunt of high unemployment,” Breakfast said.

He added that there is a strong connection between voter turnout and service delivery.

“Service delivery would also include creating jobs, and young people are not benefiting on that score. It is when you fix service delivery issues that you can make people vote on a large scale. That’s why there tends to be a lower turnout, particularly at the local government level, even though it is the most important sphere of government,” he stated.

The romanticism of the past and the glorification of history are no longer going to work. Mentioning how Struggle heroes went to Robben Island fighting for freedom is not going to incite young people to vote, he warned.

He added that blackmailing people by saying that this generation doesn’t appreciate the sacrifices made by the ANC Struggle heroes, who laid down their lives for the liberation of the country, will also not work because people want to see results. 

Breakfast added that the ANC has failed to honour its commitment to promoting development for the majority.

“There have been minor changes, for example, the racial integration of those who could maybe afford to move from township schools to those in the cities (multi-racial schools). However, these changes are cosmetic and not substantive because they have not disrupted the logic of the structure of the economy in terms of the absorption of black people on a large scale into the workings of the economy,” Breakfast said.

He added that substantive changes have not happened the way they should have, and as a result, many black people feel let down, and that is why the ANC is being punished by voters.

What we see is corruption on a large scale, he said. 

Breakfast stated that the ANC is trying to motivate itself by saying that it is still a mighty organisation and will do well, but that’s not the case, because it has not honoured the social contract, so the party will be punished at the polls.

“The ANC does not learn from its weaknesses and mistakes. To lose total control to the extent that you now have to join forces is a blow. Now, time is against the ANC because the only thing that can change the paradigm shift is to improve service delivery,” Breakfast said.

He stated that in KwaZulu-Natal in particular, even the ANC’s Secretary-General, Fikile Mbalula, publicly said that he thought the KZN provincial task team deployed to rebuild the province was a Ferrari, but it turned out to be a ‘sputtering’ Tazz.

“If it’s the Tazz that is moving, it means the ANC is not going to regain lost ground. The reality is that if you do not render the services, people are going to abandon you,” Breakfast said.

Professor Purshottama Reddy, a public governance expert from the Graduate School of Business and Leadership at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, said that there has been no political and management will to enhance good governance under the ANC over the years.

“There has been limited consequence management for transgressors found guilty of corruption, with not many criminal convictions in this regard,” Reddy said. 

He highlighted that President Cyril Ramaphosa’s proposal for a National Dialogue on Governance is not a panacea for the governance failures in South Africa, and it will certainly not prevent the country from descending and ultimately being reduced to a failed state. 

“The current state of affairs of the country and the prevailing bad governance have to be directly linked and attributed to the ruling party (ANC). It cannot now become a collective national issue where everyone – the ruling party, opposition parties, and the citizenry – becomes culpable. The ruling party has governed this country solo for almost 30 years and has to take responsibility for the current state of affairs, relative to governance. There has been no political and management will to enhance good governance over the years,” Reddy stated.

The National Dialogue on Governance, he said, cannot be viewed as a significant initiative to enhance good governance; it could just be another ‘talk shop’ with no firm and decisive action being taken to promote good governance or, for that matter, becoming a responsive state as articulated in the Constitution.

Reddy stated that it is going to be hectic and chaotic moving into the next local government election without a finalised Coalition Bill. 

“It is a given that if coalitions are not regulated, this could lead to a great deal of instability in local government, and even worse, it could hamper efficient and effective service delivery. However, although there is a need to regulate coalitions, what is critical is the political maturity of the political parties in question and the prospective councillors,” he said.

He added that political parties and prospective councillors have to work in the interests of the local citizenry and the municipality, not in the interests of political parties. 

Reddy said that the PR (Proportional Representative) Councillor system, where a municipal official is elected through a party list system rather than representing a specific ward, has outlived its purpose.

“In fact, it is the reason why the local government system is collapsing and has become dysfunctional. We cannot hold the PR councillors accountable, and this is leading to anger and frustration among local communities. The ward system will ensure greater local accountability and a system of meritocracy.” 

He said that the ward system will ensure that the most popular candidate is elected, and more importantly, has to deliver on their constitutional mandate if they want to retain their seat in the next election. 

Local communities, he said, can also hold political parties accountable, not to mention the individual councillor in question. 

“We have to go back to basics in terms of local government elections. Local democracy should be allowed to work to ensure the election of the best candidate to emerge as a councillor. If we have good councillors who are responsive and discharge their obligations, they are likely to be more powerful than local strongmen and business forums. There are many instances where a hard-working and responsive councillor has been re-elected. This is what local democracy is all about from time immemorial,” Reddy said.

gcwalisile.khanyile@inl.co.za

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