The African Development Bank has unveiled an ambitious roadmap putting artificial intelligence as a transformative force with capabilities of generating up to $1 trillion in additional GDP by 2035, nearly one-third of the continent’s current economic output. Developed under the G20 Digital Transformation Working Group by consulting firm Bazara Tech, this report serves as Africa’s digital transformation reaches a critical juncture, one that could either accelerate development or deepen inequalities.

The projection is reflective of  Africa’s unique advantages: youthful demographics, expanding digital infrastructure, and ongoing sectoral reforms. Yet optimism must be tempered by reality, Africa’s AI compute capacity accounts for just 1% of the global total, and infrastructure deficits threaten even carefully crafted strategies.

Strategic sector concentration

The report’s most striking insight is its rejection of uniform AI distribution across Africa’s economy. Instead, five priority sectors are going to capture 58% of total gains, approximately $580 billion by 2035. Agriculture leads with 20%, followed by wholesale and retail (14%), manufacturing and Industry 4.0 (9%), finance and inclusion (8%), and health and life sciences (7%).

This concentrated approach shows pragmatic thinking about where AI delivers immediate impact. Agriculture, employing over 60% of Africa’s workforce, stands to benefit from precision farming and supply chain optimisation. The retail sector’s prominence aligns with e-commerce growth across the continent. Manufacturing signals Africa’s aspirations to move up the value chain through smart production systems.

Unlike Western economies where AI gains spread across mature industries, Africa’s focused strategy acknowledges resource constraints and the imperative to demonstrate early wins that build momentum.

Five critical enablers

The framework rests on five intertwined pillars: data, compute, skills, trust, and capital. Nicholas Williams, who is the manager of the ICT Operations Division, emphasised this integrated vision: “The Bank is ready to release investment to support these actions. We expect the private sector and government to utilize this investment to ensure we achieve the identified productivity gains and create quality jobs.”

Each enabler presents formidable challenges. Data accessibility remains acute, only 25 African countries have launched national open data portals, while much public and private sector data stays locked away due to inadequate infrastructure and management protocols. This contrasts sharply with data-rich environments fueling AI development in North America and Asia.

Compute infrastructure is facing similar barriers. Major cloud providers have yet to establish regional infrastructure beyond South Africa, driving up costs and complicating compliance. Though cloud adoption grows at 25-30% annually, faster than Europe or North America, Africa’s data center capacity remains severely underdeveloped. Cassava Technologies’ partnership with Nvidia to establish Africa’s first “AI factory” in South Africa represents progress, but dozens more facilities are needed.

Skills development may prove to be most critical. Africa houses only 3% of the global AI talent pool. An ImpactHER survey revealed 86% of women across 52 African countries lack basic AI proficiency, with stark urban-rural divides. This threatens a two-tier system where AI benefits accrue only to educated urban populations. Senegal’s commitment to training 90,000 people in data science by 2028 offers a model requiring continent-wide replication.

Implementation timeline and urgency

The roadmap spans across three phases: ignition (2025-27), consolidation (2028-31), and scale (2032-35). Ousmane Fall, Director of Industrial and Trade Development, captures the urgency: “Achieving early milestones by 2026 will set Africa’s AI flywheel in motion. Africa’s challenge is no longer what to do—it is doing it on time.”

This urgency is one that is justified. The United States alone hosts 60% of top-tier AI researchers and $250 billion in private investment. Delays risk widening digital inequalities and locking Africa into dependency on imported solutions designed for other contexts.

The ignition phase has to establish foundational infrastructure while demonstrating quick wins. Countries such as Rwanda, Kenya, and South Africa have formulated AI strategies, but implementation lags. The consolidation phase requires scaling pilots and fostering cross-border collaboration. The scale phase envisions widespread adoption, but success depends entirely on earlier achievements.

The time imperative

The report ultimately concerns timing. Africa is standing where demographic advantages, digital growth, and reform momentum create unprecedented opportunity. However,  advantages have expiration dates. Youth populations become liabilities without employment. Infrastructure becomes obsolete without upgrades. Reform momentum dissipates without results.

The 2026 milestone represents the window for demonstrating progress to sustain momentum and attract investment. Missing it risks relegating Africa to passive consumption of technologies developed elsewhere, perpetuating dependence patterns from previous industrial revolutions. The question is whether political will, financial resources, and implementation capacity can converge quickly enough to seize this opportunity before it slips away.

*Sesona Mdlokovana

Associate at BRICS+ Consulting Group

Africa Specialist

**The Views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of Independent Media or IOL.

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