South African weather warnings: What they really mean
Have you ever received a weather warning from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) and wondered what it really means? While the warnings use colours and numbers, you might be asking yourself: is it just a little rain, or something serious enough to cancel school, flood your home, or even threaten your life?
We look into the meanings behind these weather warnings, how they can impact you, and how the Impact-Based Severe Weather Warning System transforms the way SAWS communicates weather risks.
How it works
The warnings follow a colour-coded system designed to show the severity of expected weather impacts.
Green indicates a low-impact event with minimal disruption, yellow signals a minor impact that may require some caution, orange indicates a significant impact that could pose risks to safety and infrastructure, and red represents a high-impact event where serious consequences are likely, requiring immediate action.
Now that we understand what the colours are, let’s move on to the numbers. Each colour is paired with a number from 1 to 5 to indicate the likelihood of the event occurring, with 5 being the highest. In special circumstances, SAWS may indicate a “10”, signalling an extreme certainty of a severe impact.
For instance, a red level 10 warning means a dangerous weather event is almost certain. Think devastating floods, destructive winds or severe hail. This is when urgent action is required.
This dual system allows citizens, schools, and local authorities to quickly understand both how bad the weather could be and how likely it is to happen.
This approach has already shown its usefulness. Ahead of the infamous Cape Storm, SAWS warned disaster managers early enough that schools were pre-emptively closed, a move that likely prevented chaos and injury.
The warning system was developed with the National Disaster Management Centre, and has been piloted in communities nationwide.
The South African Weather Service emphasises that SAWS is the only official source of weather alerts. Other social media warnings or forwarded WhatsApp messages may not be accurate — and relying on them could be dangerous.
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