Careers over cradles: Why fewer South Africans are having children
South Africa’s population is estimated to have reached 63.1 million in 2025, but behind the growing number lies a sharp and sustained decline in fertility rates; a trend that has sparked urgent questions about the nation’s socio-economic trajectory.
According to the latest Mid-Year Population Estimates released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA): “South Africa’s fertility rate has steadily declined over the years, from an average of 2.78 children per woman in 2008 to 2.21 in 2025.”
The report attributes this downward trend to a range of indicators.
“A noticeable dip in births around 2016 aligns with official birth registration records. More recent data shows that births have been dropping since 2020,” said the service.
Stats SA noted that this pattern is corroborated by data from health facilities, child grant access, and school enrolments. As a result, fertility estimates were revised using data from the District Health Information System (DHIS) and recorded live births.
Cici Sebego, a master’s student in Sociology at the University of Johannesburg, says the trend is inseparable from the country’s complex socio-political legacy and changing gender dynamics.
“From a sociological perspective, one cannot ignore the historical context. Race, class, and gender no longer entirely dictate who can lead or make decisions,” she said.
Sebego points to an increase in gender equality policies and a growing number of women pursuing higher education and professional careers.
“This shift in priorities is one of the reasons for the decline in birth rates. Many women simply don’t have the time, or financial stability, to raise children. The cost of raising a child is high, and relying solely on government support like the SASSA grant is not sustainable.”
The country’s high unemployment rate, economic instability, and teenage pregnancies further complicate the picture. Sebego believes the decline in births could be a temporary, even necessary, demographic adjustment.
“We must ask if this decline is necessarily a problem? Given our current economy, high unemployment rates, and a rise in unplanned and teenage pregnancies, a slight decline may actually help relieve some pressure on public services and households,” said Sebego.
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