The race for the ANC presidency in 2027 is rapidly gaining momentum, with influential lobbyists reportedly approaching former presidents Thabo Mbeki and Kgalema Motlanthe, along with billionaire Patrice Motsepe, to contest the leadership. 

According to ANC insiders, the intense lobbying drive is framed as an attempt to arrest the party’s clear decline and restore its battered image ahead of next year’s local elections and the party’s elective conference in 2027.

The internal campaigning is intensifying ahead of the ANC’s national general council in December, where potential contenders for the 2027 leadership race are expected to begin testing their support and forming slates.

Mbeki, who was recalled from the state presidency in 2008, is reportedly at the centre of the succession battle, with lobbyists urging him to return to the top post to help restore the party’s dignity and standing. 

To date, Mbeki has neither confirmed nor denied interest in contesting the position.

Motlanthe, who briefly served as state president after Mbeki’s recall and previously contested for the party’s top job, is also reportedly being heavily lobbied by some ANC Gauteng regional structures. 

Branches in the Greater Johannesburg region and Tshwane are reportedly pushing for a Motlanthe and Motsepe ticket, though the exact roles remain unclear.

Like Mbeki, Motlanthe has not denied or confirmed his availability.

The push for ‘recycled’ leadership comes as the ANC grapples with a loss of public trust, compounded by the formation of a Government of National Unity (GNU) following the 2024 general election, where the party lost its outright majority. 

Mbeki, in particular, has been a vocal critic of his successors, Jacob Zuma and current President Cyril Ramaphosa, recently disagreeing with Ramaphosa over the proposed National Dialogue to improve governance.

However, billionaire and Confederation of African Football (CAF) President Motsepe has publicly dispelled rumours of his own candidacy, even while wading into the succession debate.

The scramble for a credible leader has drawn sharp commentary from political analysts, with mixed views on the potential return of the veteran leaders.

Political analyst Sandile Swana argues that the lobbyists seeking Mbeki’s return are correct in their assessment of the ANC’s decline.

“There is no question that since Thabo Mbeki left the presidency of the ANC and of the country, the ANC has clearly been in decline,” Swana said. “From the 2009 elections, they started losing votes consistently and were divided. They produced the EFF, MK Party, and then all sorts of other things on the side.”

Swana added that the decline is rooted in the party’s inability to maintain cohesion. 

“They did not know how to run the ANC and keep it together in the manner that Oliver Tambo did in exile from 1960 to 1990.”

While acknowledging the need for Mbeki’s intervention, Swana questioned the practicality of the lobbying effort. 

“So those who are lobbying Thabo Mbeki to restore the dignity of the ANC are probably correct, but the question will be whether they are able to mobilise on the ground for that to happen, and where would the SA and BUSA budget be. Those are the guys who bought Cyril the presidency. Would they be willing to buy Mbeki the presidency of the ANC without buying him the presidency of the country?”

Political analyst Dr Metjie Makgoba dismissed the entire push for the former leaders as a “political bluff” born out of desperation.

“It’s a political bluff and desperation from those members of the ANC that would think they could restore the party by recycling,” Dr Makgoba said, asserting that the party’s problems are systemic and have not been fixed since 1994.

Makgoba believes that age is a factor for Mbeki and Motlanthe, and that Motsepe, despite his wealth, lacks the necessary political experience. 

“Age is not on Mbeki and Motlanthe’s side… Motsepe is a billionaire without experience running a political party. These names that are thrown into the hat of the ANC presidency have no capacity to resolve the issues of the ANC.”

For Makgoba, the ANC’s remedy lies in finding a new type of leader. “What the ANC needs now is someone who is pro-poor and who will look after their interests.” 

He further predicted the party’s demise, stating: “The way I see it is that the ANC will close shop because they became too comfortable with themselves and there is no turning back now because there is no ideological coherence.”

While the GNU is the current governing reality, the speculation around the ANC’s leadership, including rumoured attempts to recall Ramaphosa, has raised questions about its stability.

Swana warned that another recall of a state president would be too much for the ANC to withstand.

“I don’t think it’s doable, and the difficulty with that position is that it’s taken within the ANC and not Parliament or government. If the ANC decides to recall its own president… that is that. The GNU would need to appoint its own president. In fact, that would be a dissolution of the Cabinet… so physically it can be done, but in the past, it has never brought South Africa good results,” Swana said.

Dr Makgoba was asked about Ramaphosa’s rumoured resignation, and said that he would not resign because he was the ANC’s political desk of the DA.

“The GNU would not ask him to step down,” he said.

mashudu.sadike@inil.co.za

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