Call South African politics and politicians many things but predictable is not one of them.

Fresh from Liam Jacobs crossing over from the Democratic Alliance to his political nemesis, The Patriotic Alliance, South Africans were treated to another bombshell this week.

Former EFF founder turned former uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) Secretary General, Floyd Shivambu announced he was mulling the idea of forming a new party of his own – but not yet. He will remain a member of MK for now. Confused? Don’t be. Its the chess game of politics.

Shivambu is pulling off the same stunt as that of former president Jacob Zuma, now MK leader. Remember how Zuma made the shocking announcement he was leading MK while still a member of the ANC in 2023?

He was later expelled from the ANC and returned leading the pack with MK’s spectacular victory at the last general elections. Malema did the same when he too was expelled from the ANC in 2012 – and went on to form the EFF together with Shivambu.

The EFF too, drew massive support away from the ANC, which was the catalyst of the party’s subsequent decline.

Shivambu is playing the same game. Mudding the political waters. Daring the MK to expel him.

Except he is not Zuma. Or Malema.

South Africans don’t take well to political chameleons. Party hopping does not work unless you are a huge political figure. Shivambu is a well known figure – but not a powerful leader in his own right. He was given wings by parties led by powerful public figures who command support. Shivambu was the think-tank behind the EFF and later MK strategist and national organiser.

Less than a year after joining MK, Shivambu’s wings were clipped before he could fly. Was that the issue? Was Shivambu seen as a threat within MK by Zuma’s inner circle? His feud with Zuma’s daughter Duduzile played out on social media as she unleashed her fury at his character, calling him the ‘worst thing to happen to MK’.

And, despite her apology, its well known the animosity between them persisted. The tussle for Zuma’s ear and ultimately control of the party. Shivambu certainly hinted at that. His axing as MK Secretary General was the final clipping of his wings and clearly ruffled his feathers enough for him to make the decision to go out on his own – at some point.

Shivambu no doubt has the backing of funders who call the tune. That’s just how it works. Those who pay the piper, call the tune. But is Shivambu overestimating his popularity in taking on MK and the EFF? Calling the EFF a ‘cult’ and Zuma ‘gullible’ is hardly a recipe for success when those leaders still command a massive following, especially on the ground.

And more critically, Shivambu lacks the charm – crucial when mobilising support at grass roots level.

Both Malema and Zuma use their personal populism which appeals to their support base. Malema, a political demagogue, uses his kill the boer song to rile African support while Zuma’s identity in Zulu tribalism is his draw card. Both the EFF and MK have leaders as their brand identities. Shivambu taking them on is brave but a huge miscalculation.

Already, the response to him potentially forming his own party is being shot down by most South Africans. Social media is abuzz as South Africans weigh in. Shivambu is being called out as not trust worthy for visiting fraud accused fugitive pastor Shepherd Bushiri. He is also being taken to task for remaining within MK while talking of forming a new party. His bold announcement may have backfired.

During his media briefing, a confident Shivambu threw several salvos at MK – a party he still remains a member of. He accused Zuma of being surrounded by ‘political scoundrels’ who he said ‘take drugs and tweet at night’ – a thinly veiled reference to Duduzile, the only one who has openly criticised Shivambu with her late night tweets previously.

Clearly Shivambu is being led to believe the time is right for another political party. Its a path many before him have followed, some popular, others simply overestimating their popularity. And, despite the misguided reference to Zuma as ‘gullible,’ Shivambu knows too well his days with MK are numbered.

He will be expelled. Others before him faced the same fate for far less transgressions within the party. Zuma will not tolerate Shivambu campaigning for another party while within the MK. And Shivambu’s expulsion is not a question of if – but when.

And, given Zuma’s fury at Shivambu, that expulsion is likely to be fast and furious.

Until then, Shivambu is a man on the ledge.

** Zohra Teke is an independent writer and journalist.

*** The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Independent Media or IOL

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