By Dr Dawn Isabel Nagar, University of Johannesburg, South Africa

The world has become like Groundhog Day with the old issues infused with the new ones – a deja vu – an unfortunate reality, a serious hopelessness, which will certainly not reach the United Nations (UN) 2030 Global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Agenda, fast becoming a pipe-dream. Amid the sea of chaos, is an emergence of a new economic world order, provided to Africa, a great opportunity to use Putman’s two-level game theory to its advantage <Robert D. Putman, “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games”, International Organisation 42, 3, 1988, pp. 427–460>; see also Nagar, “UN-AU Relations: Towards Sustainable Peace and Economic Development: The Attainment of Agenda 2063” in, African Union and Agenda 2063: Past, Present and Future Matlosa and Adeola, eds., UJ Press, 2025. The world’s ongoing wars clearly shows a pattern of economic deluge, particularly for least developed and developed states. The severity of economic impacts is continuing – with an ever-evolving amoeba effect – changing shapes –shape-shifters, but always the same issues at play.

Currently: the world is facing a dangerous bipolar world order, where superpower rivalry of the world’s largest economies: China and the US is competing for power. The US is determined to uphold its slogan of “making America great again”. Greed and grievance are placing Israel and the US at the forefront of how global order ought to flow in defiance of multilateralism. Globally, multilateralism is to move states and societies across boundaries: criss-crossing trade, politics and security – the world is supposedly to be interconnected. But the UN 1945 Charter with all its critical organs is stifled and severely challenged. Several policies are closing borders while others display dangerous schizophrenic state behaviour. 

Geopolitics are displaying danger to world order. Such behaviours are demonstrated in great appetites to expand and gobble up countries, for example (the case of Canada against the US, 2025). Similarly, the same superpower is displaying double standards and shouting “racism” and land-grabbers. Such are the false accusations made against South Africa, accusing the country of expelling their White farmers. A dangerous rhetoric promoted by a superpower’s attempts to destroy a peaceful South Africa (the case of South Africa against the US, 2025). Africa must not be swayed by world chaos. Particularly with a country such as South Africa that has transitioned from a devastating apartheid past into a peaceful democracy and boast a government of national unity. Africa must unite against barbaric behaviours and hold fast to it its democratic principles and be determined not to import racism.

These are all done in attempts to derail Africa’s powerhouse: South Africa. This country has great leverage to elevate the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) with other strong industrialised Africa economies, such as the Seychelles, Mauritius, Egypt, Nigeria, Kenya, Rwanda, Ghana and among others, particularly at the forthcoming Group of Twenty States (G20) November 2025 summit. Africa’s key instrument is a crucial pillar – a contemporary club in hand –– the African Continental Free Trade Area: and can drive its own agenda of greater value-addition and industrialisation among its 55 member states. This new economic world order is coming as a great opportunity to Africa’s advantage and challenge this international disorder and to oppose neo-colonialist, neo-mercantilist, neo-realist and racist policies of the superpowers such as the US, (which will soon turn realism to its own demise) and to Africa’s advantage. 

Africa’s interdependency among and between states should become more and more reliant within the bloc. The fourth industrial revolution (4IR/4.0) and soon to enter Fifth Industrial Revolution (5IR/5.0) era, where artificial intelligence and technological advancements is moving at a tumultuous pace offers great opportunity for a youthful Africa (60 percent of its 1.4 billion people are youth). 

However, in a bipolar world order, when power dynamics and greed work against the stream – and while the world is going forward the dictates of realism is moving the world into the opposite direction, which is having catastrophic effects (and are growing at an exponential pace) within the international relations systems. As realism dictates: within the international relations discipline: powerful states will use their economic and military muscle to achieve their parochial interests at all costs, and in-so-doing such actions have consequences. These consequences mean the pursuit of wars, humanitarian disasters, the loss of millions of lives, internally displaced persons, and the increased numbers of economies plummeting – regardless: the interests of the realist state in its entirety takes preference. 

Indeed, when powerful states flex their muscles and use their economic and military might – there is only one goal in sight, blinkered by greed – which is to gain more economic wealth, more resources, more oil, more mineral wealth, more agricultural prosperity, a greater military guard, more land (as in the case of Canada versus the US). In this instance the British Monarchy had to come to rescue the Canadian economy, defying President Donald Trump’s expansion of Canada as its 51st state of the United States of America. <Charles III to give ‘Speech from the Throne’ in Canada: What to know | News | Al Jazeera>. 

Notably, the recent world affairs: Israel/Iran wars, is threatening a particular oil and gas shipping line along the Iranian Strait of Hormuz – a key oil shipping route among Iran, which will undoubtedly deliver another economic deluge for Africa and many poverty-stricken nations. This is all because of the world’s second largest economy, China being Iran’s largest oil and gas trading partner at (90%) as of 2025. During 2025, Iran’s oil exports over a 12-month period stood at US$67 billion traded on that Strait for the March 2025 financial year alone <What is the Strait of Hormuz and why does it matter?>, see also <Can Iran Close Strait Of Hormuz After U.S. Attack On Its Nuclear Sites?>.

This is one example amid a myriad of examples of the impact of geopolitics creating economic downturns on crucial industries on both land, sea and air. Only defence business industry budgets are gaining. At the 24 and 25 June, 2025 NATO summit held in the Netherlands, member states committed to 5% of their GDP budgets, over a decade progression 2025–2035 – pushed by the Trump administration – to build robust military machinery and capability with an envisaged war – particularly with the ongoing Ukraine and Russia war, see <In a Win for Trump, NATO Agrees to a Big Increase in Military Spending – The New York Times>. It is therefore imperative that Africa navigate the effects of socio-economic growth for its 55 member states and carve a new economic world order for the continent. 

The ceasefire between the two warring states Israel and Iran has begun as of 24 June 2025 when Israel was called upon by the US administration (as the US got cold feet and reality started settling in of a possibility of attacks against the US by Iran) to make a U-Turn on Israeli missiles, which headed for Iran. While the world watch for hope that there will be peace and the ceasefire will hold, only time will tell. But the reality is not working in favour of a peaceful world. President Trump made an unequivocal announcement earlier this week – to the effect that Iran’s nuclear military capability has been bulls-eyed by B-2 stealth bombers, <Iran denies violating ceasefire as Israel orders powerful strikes on Tehran – live updates – BBC News>. Iran’s nuclear capability is left in shambles and is to be forgotten for the next two decades with both equipment and people (nuclear scientists) wiped away in seconds. As the US boasts in being the machine behind Iran’s nuclear capability that has been obliterated, with precision through US powerful military artillery, reaching the depths of the belly of the earth, where these missiles were stored, we are yet to await accuracy from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) <IAEA reports on safety status of Iran’s nuclear facilities — ANS / Nuclear Newswire>.

The most dangerous move of this geopolitical over-reach was the targeting of Iran’s Tehran Prison, housing political prisoners – Iran’s leftist regime – the old guard, <Israel says it struck Tehran’s Evin prison and Fordo access routes>. While the world’s superpower is fox-trotting across the globe, moves were orchestrated in the hope of a regime change in Iran by President Trump, though he backed away from this statement a few days ago. Nevertheless, the Trump administration might be shaking hands with the devil <Attempts to remake the MidEast offer Trump warnings amid Iran and US strikes | AP News>, and President Trump might be underestimating his moves and missing this mark clearly. These are the games that are being played – a two-level game theory in practice. In retaliation, Iran is heading for the US military bases and on 23 June wiped out a US military base in Qatar – a precise move – causing further mayhem among Arab nation states.

On Africa’s part, the continent with the most least developed and poverty-stricken states in the world, just minutes into President Trump’s presidency, had to experience the wrath of the Trump Administration’s tariff hikes. President Trump indeed fulfilled his campaign promises that brought him into power (see particularly, Dr Dawn Nagar, <“How President Donald Trump’s cutting off of SA’s US funding helps Africa fight ‘begging bowl syndrome”>, Independent Online, March 2025; and 30 years of South Africa’s Regional Economic Integration Role in Southern Africa and Its Attempt to Improve SADC’s Regional Political Economy: Progress, Problems and Prospects, 1994–2024”, Dawn Nagar, 2025 research paper, SAIIA forthcoming]). 

The AfCFTA must be the priority and top the agenda at the forthcoming G20 summit – the body which was established in December 1999 at a Berlin Conference – a crucial intergovernmental economic forum comprising 19 countries and two regional unions – the European Union (EU) and the African Union, which South Africa will be hosting in November 2025. South Africa must address its comparative advantage initiatives to South Africa’s G20 theme: Solidarity, Equality, and Sustainable Development aligned to the AfCFTA. Africa’s issues must be pursued with the correct trading partners at the G20 November 2025 Summit meeting in South Africa.

Within a new economic world order and to become the game-changer, the AfCFTA must accurately address pressing continental-wide sustainable development gaps and challenges important to its people. The bloc must consider clear rules of engagement with strategic international partners. Africa has great potential, for example, North, West, Southern and East Africa are all oil crude petroleum producing countries with Africa comprising 7 countries of the 15-member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Producing Countries (OPEC) including: Algeria, Angola, Congo Brazzaville, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria; these states must use their comparative advantage to build the AfCFTA. On South Africa’s part, this country’s automotive sector is not shallow and have the resources and research at hand to propel its automotive industry, <The occurrence of germanium in South African coal and derived products | Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (journals.co.za)>.” 

To produce value-add industrialisation that considers climate change and the environment, require solid research and development knowledge that is clear and precise on how to capture and create carbon carriers and storage – and the University of Johannesburg has solid research-backing and leading on these issues. The AfCFTA must use academic muscle to propel Africa’s continental goals at the 2025 G20 Summit.

For example, the University of Johannesburg recently on 18 June 2025 ranked number one in South Africa and the African continent. UJ affirmed its global leadership in sustainable development, retaining a remarkable position #1 in South Africa and on the African continent. Also see 2025 Times Higher Education (THE) Impact Rankings released on, 18 June 2025. UJ is a leader in green hydrogen renewable energy; education, electrical and chemical engineering, automobile industry; law; neurodiversity; chemical engineering; health sciences; chemical sciences, actuarial sciences, sport and a robust alumni-base globally, and among other critical research and development initiatives. 

Taking into account who to engage with in trade is crucial within a new economic world order and to be the game-changer for the AfCFTA to address pressing continental-wide sustainable development gaps and challenges. Trade agreements must inculcate a multiplier effect in building small and medium-sized businesses through building cooperatives that can access stock exchange markets. South Africa’s President Honourable Cyril Ramaphosa will indeed be handing over well-established reins to the next G20 Trump Administration presidency chairmanship – and indeed it will not be an unceremonious occasion – in matching the dots for our country with the African continental member states by using the AfCFTA as the anchor.

(Please note: that these views are those of the author and not those of the University of Johannesburg).

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media.

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