South African exports to the United States have been slapped with a 30% tariff. A blow, yes, but not a surprise. These tariffs don’t exist in a vacuum. They are the latest move in a pattern of increasing diplomatic pressure from the United States, and they arrive on the back of months of thinly veiled threats to review South Africa’s eligibility under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). 

The politicisation of AGOA and the new tariffs, raises serious questions about the conditionality of so-called development partnerships and global trade. Is economic cooperation only valid when African states remain silent and compliant on global political issues? 

Government estimates more than 100,000 jobs could be lost across key sectors like agriculture, textiles and autos, at a time when unemployment is already hovering above 32%. Entire communities stand to lose income, security and dignity, but what’s equally staggering is how little South Africa actually exports to the U.S. We make up just 0.25% of all U.S. imports, less than a rounding error in Washington’s trade book. 

Our exports don’t compete with American industries, they complement them. Our fruit, for instance, is counter-seasonal, plugging supply gaps in the U.S. market rather than replacing local produce. In fact, our trade supports U.S. industry. So what, exactly, is being punished? 

The answer, of course, has little to do with economics and everything to do with power. This is not about trade. It’s about sending a message. And that message has been loud, blunt, and unmistakable – step out of line, and pay the price. 

From Rhetoric to Retaliation

The U.S. administration’s growing discomfort with South Africa’s independent foreign policy, especially its stance on global conflicts and growing ties with BRICS partners—has clearly influenced this economic escalation. Washington’s displeasure has shifted from diplomatic rhetoric to economic punishment. Threatening to revoke AGOA benefits, in tandem with the new tariffs, sends a powerful signal that dissent from Global South nations will be met with financial consequences. 

To compound the blow, Danish shipping giant Maersk has announced it will halt direct cargo shipments between South Africa and the U.S., effective October 1. While the company has cited global operational restructuring as the reason, the timing could not be more telling. The withdrawal forces South African exporters to reroute goods via European ports, increasing costs, delays, and administrative burdens. It effectively builds yet another barrier between South African goods and the U.S. market, making AGOA benefits, should they even survive this political fallout—more expensive and harder to access. 

Breaking the Myth of ‘Rules-Based’ Trade

What we are witnessing is not mere coincidence. The tariff imposition, AGOA expiring next month, and Maersk’s rerouting form a cumulative pattern of economic pressure. It is no longer just about trade; it’s about submission. The U.S. is signalling that if South Africa won’t play the geopolitical game by Washington’s rules, then its economy will be made to suffer. 

This is a dangerous precedent, not just for South Africa, but for all emerging economies that dare to exercise political independence. When trade becomes a tool of coercion rather than cooperation, the very premise of multilateralism begins to collapse.

For those of us watching the steady unraveling of what was once called the rules-based international order, this feels like the logical next step in a long, cynical game. Perhaps, it’s the nudge we’ve needed to finally stop begging for a seat at someone else’s table and start building our own. 

It’s no coincidence that these tariffs come in the same year South Africa took Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for genocide, criticised MAGA politics, and continued to deepen ties within BRICS. What we are witnessing is the punishment of a middle power that dared to act like it had agency. 

The U.S. doesn’t like being questioned, least of all by African democracies who refuse to toe the line. So when Pretoria tried to stave off the tariffs by offering to import U.S. gas, buy American crops, and invest in U.S.-linked recycling infrastructure, Washington wasn’t interested. Retaliation was the point. 

Choosing Ourselves in a Multipolar World

The irony though is that by turning up the pressure, the U.S. may have inadvertently done us a favour. For too long, South Africa and many in the Global South, have built trade strategies on the assumption that Western markets are stable, rational, and rules-based. That if we behaved, played nice, opened our markets, and said the right things in multilateral meetings, we’d be rewarded with access. 

That myth is now shattered, and it should be, because access isn’t guaranteed. Rules are arbitrary, and partnership, at least under Trump’s doctrine, is contingent on silence and compliance. So where do we go from here? 

President Ramaphosa’s promise to support exporters and expand trade ties with Africa, Asia and the Middle East is more than damage control, it’s a signal of something bigger. A chance to rebuild South Africa’s trade identity on our own terms, not as a junior partner to the West, but as a central node in an emerging multipolar economy. 

We’re not starting from scratch. BRICS, once dismissed as a diplomatic photo-op, is fast becoming a platform for alternative cooperation. At last year’s summit in Kazan, countries like India, Brazil and South Africa called not just for new development banks and infrastructure funds, but for serious structural alternatives to a dollar-dominated world. 

At the same time, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) holds the promise of turning our fragmented markets into a $3.4 trillion single economy. Asian demand for African raw materials, manufacturing capacity, and fintech innovation is accelerating. The pieces of a new trade reality are already on the table. 

The challenge? Putting them together. Yes, it will be hard, but it will be ours. 

Let’s not romanticise this shift. South–South trade is still fraught. Logistics are weak, infrastructure is uneven, and trust among governments is not always consistent. We face years of hard work, standardising policies, improving ports, digitising customs, and building the kind of supply chains that aren’t just extractive, but transformative. 

If there’s one thing this moment has made clear, it’s that dependence is a liability, and the only true resilience lies in integration, production, and self-determination. 

I often think about how the Global South is described. Lacking capital. Lacking infrastructure. Lacking voice. But what if we stopped focusing on what we lack and started recognising what we are?

A collection of nations with the resources, labour, culture, and leverage to rewire the global economy. A bloc that doesn’t just have raw materials, but the power to set new rules, if we work together to do so. 

This isn’t just about the U.S. punishing South Africa. It’s about us realising that we no longer need to wait for validation from somewhere else. What Trump may not realise is that in trying to isolate us, he may have finally given us permission to choose ourselves. And I’m hoping this time, we will. 

By Chloe Maluleke 

Associate at The BRICS+ Consulting Group 

Russian & Middle Eastern Specialist

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