As the geopolitical spotlight turns to India’s oil diplomacy, a deeper story emerges, one that reveals not dependence, but strategic design. The question is no longer whether India can do without Russian oil, but rather how its energy pragmatism is reinforcing a multipolar world order and strengthening its partnership with Russia within BRICS.

In August, Washington imposed steep tariffs of up to 50% on Indian exports, presented as a penalty for purchasing Russian crude. Soon after, US President Donald Trump claimed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to phase out Russian imports “within a short time frame”. New Delhi promptly denied this, clarifying that its energy policy remains “guided by the interests of Indian consumers in a volatile global market”. Moscow’s envoy in Delhi, Denis Alipov, echoed the sentiment, describing Russian oil as “essential for the Indian economy and the welfare of its people”.

India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, bought approximately $52.7 billion worth of Russian crude in the past year; nearly 37% of its oil expenditure. This marks a dramatic shift from 2021, when Russia was only one of many secondary suppliers. The evolution of India’s energy basket reflects both necessity and strategy; a conscious recalibration in response to global sanctions, price shocks, and supply disruptions.

How the Shift Began

Until 2021, India’s oil imports came mainly from the Middle East; Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE; supplemented by flows from the US, Nigeria, and Mexico. When sanctions on Iran and Venezuela tightened, India lost nearly 17% of its oil supply, or around 41 million tonnes, previously sourced from those countries. This void was filled initially by traditional Gulf partners, but after 2022, Russia emerged as the critical alternative.

With the onset of the Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions, Moscow offered discounted crude, quickly transforming India into one of its largest energy clients. Imports of Russian oil surged from 4 million tonnes in 2021–22 to over 87 million tonnes by 2024–25. These supplies came with average discounts of 14.1% in 2022–23 and 10.4% in 2023–24, saving India an estimated $5 billion annually, or about 3–4% of its total oil import bill.

The Economics of Alignment

The financial gains, while relatively modest compared to India’s $900 billion overall import bill, are strategically significant. By purchasing discounted Russian crude, New Delhi has simultaneously lowered domestic fuel costs and indirectly stabilised global markets. Were India to abandon these imports, analysts argue that oil prices could surge globally, erasing any savings and worsening inflationary pressures worldwide.

India’s refineries, among the largest in Asia, are optimised for medium to heavy crude such as Russia’s Urals blend. Replacing these with lighter grades from the US or West Africa would require costly modifications and reduce yields of key fuels like diesel and jet fuel.

Thus, Russia’s role in India’s energy security is not merely transactional; it is infrastructural. The bilateral trade has deepened not just through oil flows, but through payment innovations, logistics partnerships, and an increasing use of local currencies in settlement; all aligning with BRICS’ push for de-dollarisation and financial autonomy.

Diplomatic Calculations and BRICS Synergy

For India, continuing energy ties with Russia amid Western scrutiny is a calculated assertion of strategic autonomy — a principle that lies at the heart of its foreign policy and BRICS cooperation. Moscow’s willingness to offer long-term contracts, flexible payment mechanisms, and technology transfers gives India leverage it lacks in Western partnerships. In turn, India’s sustained purchases have helped Russia diversify export markets and maintain economic resilience despite sanctions.

Within BRICS, this alignment strengthens the bloc’s economic cohesion. As China, Brazil, and South Africa pursue parallel initiatives in green and industrial energy cooperation, the India–Russia energy corridor underscores the group’s capacity to create South–South interdependencies that challenge Western-dominated supply systems. Russia gains a stable Asian outlet for its energy, while India secures affordable inputs for growth — a relationship emblematic of BRICS’ collective resilience.

A Calculated Balancing Act

New Delhi’s position remains complex. The US–India trade relationship, worth over $190 billion, is at risk of strain. Washington’s recent tariffs and allegations that Indian purchases “finance Russia’s war” have cast a shadow over ongoing trade negotiations. Yet, India’s response reflects quiet confidence: while maintaining ties with Washington, it has refused to sacrifice national interest for geopolitical convenience.

As energy economist Partha Mukhopadhyay of the Centre for Policy Research observes, “Russia’s rise as India’s top supplier has come at the expense of almost every other exporter. Yet it demonstrates India’s capacity to adapt to volatility and secure its interests in a multipolar system.” This adaptability, rather than alignment with any single bloc, defines India’s current strategy.

Oil prices have fallen nearly 27% this year, softening global markets and making India’s continued imports less provocative in economic terms. However, the broader implications are geopolitical: India and Russia’s partnership, initially shaped by necessity, is evolving into a durable pillar of cooperation. It extends beyond hydrocarbons into defence, digital technology, and cross-border payment infrastructure; reinforcing the institutional architecture that underpins BRICS.

Looking Ahead: Energy as Strategy

In the longer term, India’s energy pragmatism is about more than fuel security. It is part of a wider realignment in which emerging economies are asserting control over the levers of development. As the world transitions to cleaner energy, Russia’s role as a supplier of discounted oil and potential partner in nuclear and hydrogen projects complements India’s broader industrial ambitions.

Within BRICS, this dynamic helps craft a narrative of mutual reliance and shared sovereignty, a contrast to the dependency cycles of the past. By combining Russia’s resource base with India’s technological capacity and demographic scale, the two nations are positioning themselves at the forefront of a new economic geography — one defined by collaboration rather than coercion.

India’s energy diplomacy with Russia is, therefore, not a short-term hedge against high prices, but a strategic investment in multipolar resilience. It symbolises a shift from transactional trade to systemic partnership, one that enhances both nations’ leverage within BRICS and the broader Global South.

In the contest between pressure and pragmatism, India’s oil calculus affirms a simple truth: strategic independence is not proclaimed; it is practised.

Written By: 

*Dr Iqbal Survé

Past chairman of the BRICS Business Council and co-chairman of the BRICS Media Forum and the BRNN

*Cole Jackson

Lead Associate at BRICS+ Consulting Group 

Chinese & Middle Eastern Specialist

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