South Africa’s support of the one-China policy appears to be reaping reward for the republic, not only from an economic point of view but also from the standpoint of positioning it as a kingmaker in the broader geopolitical tussle between the Asian powerhouse and the US.

With the relationship between Pretoria and Washington having soured due to US President Donald Trump’s mindless imposition of a 30% tariff on South African exports, China has spotted the opportunity to shore up its relationship with the nation and others on the continent.

Earlier this year, President Xi Jinping confirmed zero-tariff treatment for 100% tariff lines for the 53 African nations with which it enjoys diplomatic ties.

China’s growing economic influence in South Africa is sizeable. In 2024 alone, China invested $13.21 billion in South Africa, 92% of which was in the form of manufactured goods. Chinese carmakers Chery and GWM also intend assembling vehicles in South Africa, where their brands’ market share is soaring annually.

The Eastern powerhouse is also investing heavily in the country’s infrastructure, creating hundreds of local jobs in the process.

No greater example can be found than in the Eastern Cape, where the China Communications Construction Company is involved in a joint venture to build the Mtentu Bridge which, when completed, will be one of the longest main-span balanced cantilever bridges in the world.

South Africa, a BRICS member, has made no secret of its allegiance to China as titanic geopolitical shifts unfold.

Earlier this year, South Africa officially withdrew its recognition of Taiwan’s representative office in the capital of Pretoria.

South Africa has been putting pressure on Taiwan to move its office out of the capital to Johannesburg, arguing that having it in the administrative seat of government violates the country’s one-China principle, adopted in 1998.

United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 was adopted in 1971 to accommodate the People’s Republic of China’s inclusion. It meant that the Republic of China, Taiwan’s official name, could no longer be represented.

South Africa has not been alone in its moves against Taipei this year.

Somalia, a decades-long backer of the one-China policy, was even more explicit in its actions against Taiwan, banning all Taiwanese passport-holders from entering the country in April.

This was later lifted due to pressure from the Trump regime, despite America adding to a humanitarian crisis in the East African nation by slashing USAID-backed projects worth more than $400m, according to documents leaked by Congress and analysed by The Independent news outlet in the UK.

Taiwan has ramped up efforts to establish strong ties with Somaliland, which broke away from Somalia 34 years ago.

While Somaliland is not recognised by any sovereign state, Taiwan has now established a diplomatic office there and Somaliland one in Taipei. In addition, Taiwan and Somaliland are on the brink of signing an historic military cooperation agreement.

To this end, Taiwan has already provided military training to Somaliland’s soldiers.

The island is using financial diplomacy, including funds, investment, technical and financial cooperation, to gain political traction with Somaliland. In September 2024, the island committed $2 million to support Somaliland’s 2024 presidential and party elections.

However, this pales in comparison to China’s $28-million grant to Somalia in September 2024, further elevating the status of the relationship between the two countries.

It would be far too generous to say that the US, a champion of neo-colonialism, has been caught napping as these developments unfold and China cements its position on the continent.

What has transpired is entirely of its own making under a leader whose inability to see past his own ego is costing, and will continue to cost, America and its citizens.

If Trump thought his tariffs would strengthen his country, he thought wrong. Figures presented by The Economist magazine earlier this month show that the price of durable goods in the US rose by more than 3% at an annual rate in the second quarter of this year.

Furthermore, unemployment is rising in the US’s manufacturing and retail sectors, which face higher costs and even greater uncertainty.

Meanwhile, China continues along its merry way without breaking a sweat.

That the US now appears to be easing its stance on South Africa, prepared to hold talks where it wasn’t before, is significant indication that it recognises it has overplayed the strongarm tactics while China firms up trade agreements in one of the continent’s most sound economies.

Ironically, it is now South Africa that finds itself in a position to call more shots with the economic might of China increasingly behind it.

* John Harvey is a South African writer and content producer who has contributed to publications in Africa, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and United States.

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media. 

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