The promise and the gap

Africa stands at an inflection point in its economic integration. The African Continental Free Trade Area has catalysed a measurable shift in the way that goods, capital, and services move across the continent, with intra-African trade reaching $208 billion in 2024, a 7.7 percent year-on-year increase that shows both momentum and possibility. The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa projects that full implementation could add over $450 billion to continental GDP by the year 2035. Yet beneath these promising figures lies a reality that is more complex : the digital interface of e-commerce has outpaced the physical infrastructure that is required to sustain it.

The paradox is striking. Mobile penetration in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to go up by 80 percent by 2030, while e-commerce forecasts foresee the market will triple from $317 billion in 2024 to over $1 trillion by 2033. Instant payment systems processed 64 billion transactions worth nearly $2 trillion in 2024 alone. But this digital sophistication exists alongside customs systems that remain fragmented, air cargo networks that lack sufficient regional links, and trust deficits that prevent small enterprises from capturing cross-border opportunities. The question is not whether Africa is able to build digital commerce at scale, it already has, but it is whether the continent can construct the connective tissue that transforms individual transactions into sustainable trade networks.

The logistics bottleneck

Nelson Teixeira,who is the managing director of Operations for Sub-Saharan Africa at FedEx, identifies logistics as the structural bottleneck. For example, a merchant in Johannesburg can reach a customer in Lagos through digital platforms with relative ease, however, the transaction’s viability is dependent entirely on whether the physical goods arrive reliably, affordably, and within a predictable timeframe. This is where Africa’s e-commerce ambitions experience hard constraints. Customs clearance remains inconsistent across jurisdictions, non-tariff barriers quietly erode competitiveness, and the absence of interoperable systems forces businesses to navigate each border as a discrete challenge rather than part of an integrated market.

The customs dimension deserves particular scrutiny. AfCFTA’s tariff reductions mean very little if goods stay trapped in bureaucratic processes that lack digital coordination. What matters now is whether customs authorities can share information seamlessly, process documentation electronically, and eliminate redundant inspections that add days to delivery timelines. Teixeira emphasises that the real opportunity lies in making customs systems interoperable, without this, cross-border movement remains costly and unpredictable for enterprises of all sizes. This is not a technical problem alone but a governance challenge requiring coordination across sovereign jurisdictions with varying institutional capacities.

Air cargo and regional connectivity

Air cargo infrastructure is another  structural constraint. E-commerce generates a high demand for time-sensitive delivery, especially for medical supplies, perishable goods, and high-value items that cannot wait for surface transport. Yet many African routes still require indirect connections through hubs that are in Europe or the Middle East, adding both time and money . FedEx’s multiple weekly flights connecting Johannesburg, Nairobi, and Dubai are examples of the kind of dedicated regional capacity required to support growing volumes, particularly for priority shipments in healthcare and automotive sectors. Expanding these networks and strengthening secondary hubs is going to  determine whether African e-commerce can achieve the speed and reliability that consumers increasingly expect.

Trust, security, and digital integration

However, infrastructure alone cannot eliminate friction. Payment security and fraud risk remain acute concerns, especially for small and medium enterprises that are entering unfamiliar markets. Trust is fundamental to cross-border commerce, businesses need confidence that payments will arrive, goods will be delivered, and that the process remains transparent. This is where integrated digital solutions become essential, linking payment systems with customs documentation and shipment tracking to minimise risk for both buyers and sellers. The convergence of fintech platforms, logistics providers, and government systems creates the conditions for secure transactions at scale.

Global logistics companies operate as critical intermediaries in this ecosystem. With compliance expertise, established networks, and on-the-ground presence, they can absorb complexity that would risk overwhelming smaller businesses. FedEx works with customers to manage customs requirements, vet shipments, and integrate digital tools that support secure cross-border trade. This intermediation enables entrepreneurs without large export teams or regional offices to participate in continental markets, fundamentally democratising access to trade flows that were previously restricted to well-capitalized firms.

Africa’s e-commerce trajectory is going to be determined by whether physical and digital infrastructure can converge effectively. The continent has demonstrated remarkable capacity for technological leapfrogging, but sustainable commerce is in need of systems that connect mobile payments, instant settlement, interoperable customs platforms, and reliable logistics networks into a coherent whole. The opportunity is substantial, but realising it requires coordinated investment in the unglamorous architecture that makes trade possible, not just the platforms where it occurs, but the roads, runways, data systems, and institutional frameworks that transform digital promise into delivered goods.

*Dr Iqbal Survé

Past chairman of the BRICS Business Council and co-chairman of the BRICS Media Forum and the BRNN

*Sesona Mdlokovana

Associate at BRICS+ Consulting Group

Africa Specialist

**The Views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of Independent Media or IOL.

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