President Donald Trump was eager to claim victory this week after the record-long U.S. government shutdown ended on his terms. But almost immediately, the White House was forced to battle a familiar bogeyman: Jeffrey Epstein.

A trove of emails released by Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday reignited questions about Trump’s relationship with the disgraced financier and how much the president knew about Epstein’s alleged abuse of underage women.

While the White House swiftly dismissed the effort as a Democratic smear campaign, the headline-grabbing messages underscored a potential vulnerability for Trump that could shadow the president and his Republican Party into next year’s midterm congressional elections.

Trump has weathered controversies that would have sunk many politicians. But the Epstein saga has proven to be a persistent liability that disrupts Trump’s message discipline and complicates his effort to keep his coalition focused on policy rather than scandal.

SOME REPUBLICANS BREAK RANKS

Many of Trump’s most loyal supporters believe government is withholding sensitive documents about Epstein, a convicted sex offender who died by suicide in jail in 2019, that would reveal his ties to powerful public figures.

A handful of Republicans have broken ranks to join Democrats seeking a full documents release, drawing a rebuke from Trump, who called them “soft and foolish.”

“I think the hope was that it would die down and go away, and that was never going to be the case,” says Republican strategist Terry Sullivan, who headed Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign.

“It’s an impossible issue to handle effectively,” he adds. “It’s impossible to prove a negative. If he (Trump) didn’t know anything, how do you prove it?”
Pia Carusone, a Democratic strategist and partner at political consultancy SKDK, says the specter of Epstein could depress Republican turnout in the 2026 midterm elections if new revelations keep dripping out.

Some Trump supporters for years have fanned conspiracy theories about Epstein’s clients and the circumstances of his death. While Trump has not been accused of wrongdoing related to the wealthy financier, he has faced a backlash from supporters over his administration’s refusal, citing privacy concerns, to disclose all Epstein-related investigative files.

“The MAGA base has a way of attaching to insider issues and blowing them up,” Carusone says. “I think he’s very vulnerable on this.”

While nine in 10 Republicans say they approve of Trump’s performance in the White House overall, just four in 10 say they approve of his handling of the Epstein files, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in October.

The White House said it would not be distracted by the Epstein saga.

“Democrats and the mainstream media are desperately trying to use this hoax as a distraction to talk about anything other than Democrats getting utterly defeated by President Trump in the shutdown fight. These emails prove literally nothing,” White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson says.

VIDEO | Sex Trafficking: Jeffrey Epstein, Donald Trump emails